So Basically...
The US presidential election is in just under a month and has significant implications, not just for US politics but for political, social, and economic affairs around the world. Many of these events, such as the Russia-Ukraine and MENA conflicts, Hurricane Helena and Hurricane Milton, China's economic policies, inflation, and global trade, will influence and be influenced by the 2024 US Presidential election results. Data shows a very minor gap between the candidates at this time, so the impacts of the election on these various events are highly relevant in understanding the election and its importance.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris have largely different views on the Russia-Ukraine and the Middle Eastern conflicts. Trump and the Republican party plan to reduce funding for Ukraine, improve relations with Russia, and negotiate a peace deal. Little details have been given to support how this would be done, but Vice-President candidate J.D. Vance has also mentioned the demilitarisation of Ukrainian territories. Harris plans to continue support and funding for Ukraine while holding Russia accountable for various crimes against humanity and leveraging the power of NATO. These two approaches could lead to vastly different outcomes for the conflict and, consequently, the US. The development of this conflict over the next few weeks could greatly impact the election results, depending on the severity of the issue and if major changes cause changes in planned policy or change the effects of the conflict on the US.
As for the conflicts in the Middle East, Israel and Palestine continue to engage in deadly conflicts and attacks, driving up oil prices and creating political instability throughout the region. The US has a large amount of influence in this conflict through its support for Israel to remove Hamas rule from Gaza. Both the Trump and Biden administrations attempted to establish two-state solutions and form peace plans, both were unsuccessful. This conflict can impact global markets, especially the market for oil, and socio-economic events in MENA, meaning the influence of the US and its determined support for Israel is a primary factor impacting these events.
The major hurricanes, Hurricane Helena, which devastated Florida, soon to be followed by Hurricane Milton, are likely to influence the election results massively. The communities impacted most severely by these hurricanes are predominantly republican communities. Due to the damage and suffering caused by these hurricanes, people within these communities are more likely to vote for the Harris administration due to democratic economic policies that concern welfare and relief funding. This could cause a shift in the electoral patterns of these communities seen in previous years, supporting Harris in the polls. However, some media portrayals of the hurricanes and the damage could limit this impact, as many have criticised the democratic party.
There are a number of economic events that have a stake in this election. Inflation within the US has reduced in recent weeks, possibly supporting Harris, as some feel more optimistic about the markets and the cost of living. However, others believe it took too long to happen and hold the democratic party accountable for the inflation experienced throughout the 2020-2024 term. Inflation could be a determining factor in this month running up to the election, as it could solidify trust in the Harris administration or cause people to call for Republican economic policies. Chinese economic development and competition with the US are other concerns for many to consider when casting their vote in November. Chinese stocks reached their highest point in over a decade last week, and the recent stimulus policies. China has been notorious for high interest rates and tight control over banks. These new policies that have cut interest rates and reduced the reserve requirement will likely encourage Chinese consumption and possible economic policy reform within the country. This facilitates an influx of foreign investment into the country, raises stock prices, and promotes new stimulus. Due to Trump promoting higher levels of protectionism through tariffs and limiting trade with China, this increase in competition with China could lead him to gain more votes, as Harris takes a less harsh approach to the economy in this respect, promoting softer protectionist policies. This also contributes to the role of the US and the 2024 election on global trade. Both candidates have said there will be some amount of protectionism and actions to limit the progression of China relative to the US, aiming to promote US development and power over the global economy. However, differences stem from the level of protectionism, which could impact world prices and trade relations worldwide, having extensive implications for the global economy.
The 2024 US Presidential election, with its tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, stands at the intersection of numerous global issues. The candidates' varying approaches to international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, could significantly reshape geopolitical dynamics. Domestic challenges, such as the recent hurricanes in Florida, may influence traditionally Republican regions. Economic factors, including inflation trends and the US-China economic rivalry, are pivotal in shaping voter opinion. The election's outcome will have global consequences, influencing US domestic policies, global trade relations, international conflicts, and world economic order. As election day approaches, these issues highlight the importance of this election in determining the trajectory of the United States and the global community. These issues seem even more pivotal due to the close-running of the race. The Economist estimates that Kamala Harris currently leads by 2.9 points, with a 54% chance of winning the election. This estimation stresses the importance of these ongoing events over the course of the next month, as any slight shift in voter perspective could change the course of the election and, therefore, the course of global politics and economics.
Reference List
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/08/could-an-october-surprise-upset-americas-election
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